Maharashtra assembly elections 2024: What is the TISS report about 'vote jihad'?

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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), part of the incumbent Mahayuti alliance, has a new narrative just days before Maharashtra goes to the polls on November 20. It's called ‘vote jihad', and the mainstreaming began with the release of a report last week at a Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) seminar titled ‘Illegal Immigrants to Mumbai: Analysing Socio-economic and Political Consequences'.

City BJP leader Kirit Somaiya spotlighted the report at a November 9 press conference saying it is a larger ‘vote jihad' conspiracy to garner minority votes. The next day, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis echoed the ‘vote jihad' in an election rally at Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (formerly Aurangabad).

The TISS report on ‘vote jihad'

To be sure, ‘vote jihad' is not a new slogan. It had previously featured in an October rally by Fadnavis where he attributed BJP's underperformance in certain Lok Sabha constituencies to this alleged phenomenon. Speaking in Kolhapur last month, he stated, "In 14 out of 48 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra, ‘vote jihad' was a factor. Hindutva thought needs to awaken if anti-Hindu leaders are being elected to top positions."

Later, on November 5, TISS hosted a national seminar at its Deonar campus to discuss the above-mentioned report's findings, bringing together academics, policymakers, government officials, and experts from across India. According to the institute, the seminar facilitated in-depth discussions on socio-economic issues, healthcare, and the political impact of illegal immigration in Mumbai.

Professor Shantishree Dhulipudi Pandit, vice-chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, was the chief guest and keynote speaker, while Sukh Ram Meena, former director general in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, was the guest of honour.

Professor Shankar Das, pro vice-chancellor of TISS and principal investigator of the study, along with assistant professor Souvik Mondal, the co-principal Investigator, presented the report. Das highlighted a significant gap in understanding the real-time impact of illegal immigration on Mumbai's socio-economic and urban landscape. He stressed the need for comprehensive policy responses that address these complexities while ensuring stability and security.

"Mumbai's population and resource challenges are only part of the story," he said. "We need a deeper understanding of how illegal immigration affects employment, access to services, and the socio-political environment." Mondal provided insights into the research methodology, emphasising the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to tackle issues like cultural displacement, rising crime, housing shortages, healthcare strain, and risks of "radicalisation."

Speaking with mid-day, Prof Mondal said the six-month study involved a sample size of 3,000 individuals, with findings based on both primary and secondary data. "This study is rooted in extensive literature review and a systematic approach to understand the gaps in existing research," he said. BJP leaders, including Fadnavis and Somaiya, have since been using the report as validation of their allegations of ‘vote jihad'.

Mondal told mid-day that the pathways of immigration from Bangladesh and Myanmar through eastern states to Mumbai can be perplexing since "Mumbai has no direct border with any neighbouring country, yet immigrants keep arriving here." He said most survey respondents shared that their first residences in India were in states such as West Bengal, Assam, Jharkhand, and Bihar, before migrating to Mumbai.

When asked about the report's political reception, Mondal said, "This report serves an academic purpose. The larger goal is to encourage informed dialogue and shape policies that foster socio-economic harmony." An NCP leader from the Ajit Pawar faction (part of the Mahayuti alliance) told mid-day, "We don't endorse the ‘Vote Jihad' and ‘Batenge to Katenge' narrative. Many of our candidates are Muslims, and such rhetoric will only create a divide among Maharashtrian Muslims and spread unwarranted tension."

What is the TISS report about?

A newly released report from the TISS Mumbai highlights the profound impact of illegal immigration on Mumbai's socio-economic landscape. The report, titled Illegal Immigrants to Mumbai: Analysing Socio-economic and Political Consequences, talks about the "challenges posed by the growing population of Bangladeshi and Rohingya immigrants in the city."

Researchers warn of potential consequences for infrastructure, public services, and local employment, and suggest stricter immigration controls to manage the strain on the city's resources.