08 December,2009 08:52 AM IST | | Alifiya Khan
Nearly 16,000 patients are estimated to fall critically ill in winter phase of swine flu; so far only 317 ICU beds are available in city hospitals
One in five Puneites are expected to get infected with swine flu in the coming months. That means almost one person every second household.
Besides, around 16,000 patients might need ICU admissions when the second phase of the H1N1 epidemic, predicted to start in winter,u00a0 begins. However, the city hospitals have about 317 ICU beds put together for H1N1 patients so far.
That's what a report prepared by the District Collector's office, with the help of doctors from B J Medical College, has predicted.
"According to World Health Organisation (WHO), the second phase of the epidemic is expected to happen anytime between November and February. It has been predicted that the H1N1 virus might affect a greater number of people during the next phase. And based on those indications, this report was prepared. It showed that 20 per cent of the population might be infected while 80,000 people might need admissions," said Dr Pradeep Awate, joint director of state health services.
He added that preparations for the predicted second phase of the epidemic are based on the report submitted by the WHO.
"The predictions are based on the reports released by World Health Organisation, experience of the epidemic in the city and trends observed. These are assumptions based on certain mathematical models and the actual experience can be close to this prediction," said Dr Murli Tambe, head of preventive and social medicine at B J Medical College, who drafted and submitted the report a week ago to district officials.
Ready for relapse
Based on the report, the health department has made an availability of 411 doctors from government hospitals and nearly 3,500 doctors from private hospitals to handle swine flu patients.
"Earlier we were caught unaware and that's why confusion prevailed for a few days. Now we are making preparations based on these assumptions to ensure that epidemic on any scale is handled by us. According to the number of patients predicted for admissions, beds are being arranged," said Uddhav Gawande.
On asked why more than 75 per cent of the onus of handling swine flu patient's lies on private doctors in the next phase. Dr H H Chavan, district health officer said that it is only natural as most patients prefer a private hospital set-up for treatment.
Said Chavan, "Even now, they are handling 60 per cent work as patients go to private hospitals. Also, the infrastructure is readily available there while creating fresh facilities like beds, ICUs in government set-up will take time. Hence, there will be greater dependence on private hospitals."
