European woodlands may vanish entirely or migrate several hundred meters uphill due to climate change, study warns

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A new study suggests that the relentless advance of climate change may lead to drastic transformations in mountain forests, rendering them virtually unrecognizable. European woodlands, as we know them today, may either vanish entirely or migrate several hundred meters uphill due to the profound impacts of the climate crisis.

This alarming forecast is the result of research conducted on the mountain forests of five vulnerable locations in Italy, as documented in the journal "Frontiers in Forests and Global Change."

Dr. Sergio Noce from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation (CMCC) expressed his concerns, stating, "If I imagine my daughter walking with me as an old man in our mountain forests, I can envision witnessing the initial stages of a profound change in species. Like any natural process, this transformation will unfold over time, and the timescales of forests differ significantly from our own."

Forests play a pivotal role in supporting communities, providing essential resources, influencing water availability and quality, nurturing soil, fostering biodiversity, and offering recreational opportunities. In Italy, one-third of the land is covered by forests, and forested areas are expanding. Nevertheless, recent droughts, hurricanes, and wildfires have unleashed significant environmental changes, particularly impacting mountain forests vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Addressing these challenges necessitates access to high-resolution climate data and accurate predictive models capable of projecting future scenarios and understanding the consequences of the climate crisis on these delicate ecosystems.

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To gain insights into the potential transformations, Noce and his colleagues developed forest species distribution models for five regions in the Apennines and Alps. These models were integrated with climate change projections based on two scenarios: one with emissions control and one with no changes. Utilizing this data, they created maps depicting the suitability of land for future tree species through the year 2050.

"Noce emphasized the importance of this research, stating, "Understanding which species will thrive or decline under future conditions can guide planning, management, and conservation decisions. Forests offer critical ecosystem services, including water cycle regulation, biodiversity support, timber production, tourism, carbon capture, and storage, among others. Every decision made today impacts these services for years to come and must be based on the best available knowledge."

The study's findings indicate that the suitable ranges for most species are expected to contract, while a few, notably the European larch and Turkey oak, may expand beyond the current tree line and broaden their distribution.

This shift was observed in both scenarios, with varying degrees of change, which the scientists have categorized as upper and lower bounds of possible outcomes. Generally, the tree line is predicted to shift upward, posing a threat to species with narrower, more specialized ranges. There is also the potential for high mountain habitats, such as alpine meadows, to diminish as trees encroach upon these areas.

The researchers cautioned that identifying clear winners and losers among the tree species evaluated was challenging. Nevertheless, they noted that silver fir and European beech were particularly vulnerable.

Among the five locations studied, the northern and northeastern Apennines emerged as the most susceptible, with all existing tree species at risk of change. Mixed stands of trees with diverse species demonstrated greater resilience.

Additionally, certain surviving species may introduce new vulnerabilities. For example, the Maritime pine, considered for reforestation in the southern Apennines, is more fire-prone than the current tree species in that region. This could lead to severe problems as the risk of wildfires increases.

The study's authors also cautioned that the relationship between environmental factors and species presence may evolve unpredictably. Nevertheless, these high-quality models can help identify species and forests better equipped to withstand the climatic crisis.

Dr. Noce concluded, "We can consider this work as an ongoing experiment. We already plan to deepen our research in Italy with the support of European funds from the Next Generation EU program. Expanding the geographic scope and extending the time horizon of our research are also part of our future endeavors." (With inputs from Ani)