08 March,2009 10:04 AM IST | | Nik Gowing
In Dubai, how much of what you see represents what is really happening?
The forest of concrete, plate glass and crane towers apparently continues to grow. But pull back the drapes, peak underneath and ask questions. Then you confirm both the anxiety gripping this emirate, but also some pointers to positive changes.
I witnessed progress last weekend at Dubai's first literary festival.
In advance, many sceptics declined to be involved. Despite Dubai's reputation in the Arab world for being relatively the most liberal, they feared its attitude to free speech and expression was in reality too restrictive.
The sceptics expected a need for self censorship and caution that should never be tolerated at such a celebration of words and ideas.
Those fears were suddenly thrown into stark relief ten days before the festival.
A leading publisher claimed the launch of a new novel set in the Gulf had been banned by the festival. The reason? 'Cultural sensitivities' like its discussion of Islam and a gay sheikh with an English boyfriend.
The literary world exploded with outrage at apparent censorship. The 'ban' had to be proof of the limits of artistic tolerance in Dubai.
The distinguished Canadian novelist Margaret Atwood immediately withdrew over a 'regrettable turn of events'.
She wrote: 'As an international vice president of PEN ' an organisation concerned with the censorship of writers ' I cannot be part of the festival'.
Other authors were close to withdrawing. The Festival's credibility and future were at stake. I too had significant doubts.
But all was not what it seemed.
'The Gulf Between Us' by Gulf journalist Geraldine Bedell had not been 'banned' or 'censored' by the festival in the way her publishers and other vested commercial interests had claimed.
Suddenly, seven days before the festival, there was the collective sound of literary rubber screeching on the tarmac as authors did dramatic handbrake turns.
The circumstances surrounding the non-inclusion of Bedell's book were not as her side portrayed.
After a few days in which 'my head is spinning', Atwood swiftly intervened to concede in a written mea culpa that having 'leapt into this dog's breakfast, I have it all over my face'.
She berated those who had chosen to exploit the words 'ban' and 'censor'. 'A loose use of these terms is not helpful' wrote Atwood. 'Every country has some form of the not-permitted' including in Canada where child pornography and hate literature are illegal.
Result? Far sharper and more open discussions on controversial issues in Dubai than many thought would ever be tolerated.
Atwood appeared on a big screen by satellite at 2am from her Toronto home for a robust, last-minute debate on censorship. It included unexpectedly feisty interventions, including from Arab women writers, some fully covered.
Mohammed Al Mur, an emirate writer who is also Vice Chair of the Dubai Culture and Arts Authority, complained publicly of the times when 'yes' he had been censored.
Other literary stars risked making their points elsewhere.
Louis de Bernieres defied the Dubai sensitivity of not showing affection in public by reading a poem on the need to show love by holding hands.
Frank McCourt highlighted the defiant spirit of his Brooklyn roots and Irish upbringing. He ignored the diplomatic request not to talk about alcoholism and Catholicism by doing just that ' to much appreciation and amusement.
In a three day festival, there may be yellow cards and setbacks that I did not see and which might yet emerge.
But over coffee and breakfast on Sunday, the once sceptical star names who had wondered if they had taken a professional risk by attending thought precisely the opposite.
This festival experiment had done what many quietly hoped it would.
It put not just a giant foot in the door of control to prevent it slamming shut again. It also generated a new confidence that open expressions of ideas ' however bold and risqu' ' are not culturally or politically subversive.
Instead they are the vital ventilation and lifeblood for Dubai's young, maturing, global society.
Yet behind those drapes this is a Dubai that is suddenly fragile for other reasons.
The economy minister Sultan Al Mansouri this week predicted 'stability for at least nine months'. But what level, of stability?
If numbers, data and trends are being recorded by the UAE leadership, they are not being confirmed publicly.
But in the global downturn Dubai's economy is bleeding badly. The impression is of an economy falling off a cliff.
One previously self-confident executive in a large corporation told me profit is not on the agenda: 'We are working only not to lose money'.
The culture which bred three decades of explosive growth does not know adversity. The word does not really exist in Arabic. The psyche and mindset which have only known success and growth are having serious difficulty coping.
One research company reported that two out of five expatriate, non-Emirati workers believe they will leave Dubai in 2010. In a nation where only one person in ten is an Emirati, that signals a potentially catastrophic depopulation.
And the reason is clear. It is fear stimulated by new high levels of dissatisfaction.
One fifth of respondents believe they will have no job in twelve months. A property consultant confided to me that the real estate market is bleeding badly. 40% of new property is unsold because almost no one will buy at the prices being asked.
People whose jobs are threatened, or who have no job, are trading down to cut costs. 'Look closely at the number of residential blocks with no lights on at night' said a friend.
Hotel occupancy is down significantly. Some foreign staff are being 'let go', including in the most prestigious and high profile properties.
Worldwide, the universal business challenge is for smart new thinking that generates business and sustains cash flow. Here, that does not come easy.
In the shopping malls there are no 30% or 50% off signs to stimulate flagging sales. Car showrooms are selling almost no vehicles. Contacts told me dismissively about the car salesman's view that a car has a price, so that is what it must sell at.
Had '3,000 cars' been abandoned at the international airport by former residents overloaded with debt who decided to do a 'runner' rather than face Dubai's strict laws? Most suspected the numbers were exaggerated by the rumour mill. But police told one contact there are more than usual, and possibly several hundred cars do remain unclaimed gathering sand dust in the car park.
Look out to sea and the giant rock barges building the new islands shaped like the world don't seem to be doing anything.
Look up into the sky for long enough and you realise few cranes are moving. The implications for the vast pool of migrant labour from India and the subcontinent are obvious: a big drop in work, remittances or visas.
I let my eyes wander to the top of the new 2,684ft Burj Dubai skyscraper. It should open later this year. But who will occupy it?
Camping on top in his cab for several days at a time is the crane operator. By repute he is a consummate blogger and writer.
Might the revealing 'Tales of a Crane Driver' make it to another literary festival here one day?
'World News Today with Nik Gowing' is on BBC World News on weekday evenings at 2130
