European climate agency says 2024 is likely to be hottest year on record

In 2024, Earth is likely to record its hottest year yet, with a 1.5°C rise in global temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels, according to the European climate agency Copernicus. Experts point to the relentless increase in greenhouse gases, along with El Niño and other factors, as key contributors to this alarming trend.

For the second year in a row, Earth will almost certainly be the hottest it’s ever been. And for the first time, the globe this year reached more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming compared to the pre-industrial average, the European climate agency Copernicus said.

“It’s this relentless nature of the warming that I think is worrying,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus.

Buontempo said the data clearly shows the planet would not see such a long sequence of record-breaking temperatures without the constant increase of greenhouse gases.
He cited other factors that contribute to exceptionally warm years like last year and this one. They include El Nino -- the temporary warming of parts of the Pacific that changes weather worldwide -- as well as volcanic eruptions that spew water vapor into the air and variations in energy from the sun. But he and other scientists say the long-term increase in temperatures beyond fluctuations like El Nino is a bad sign.

“A very strong El Nino event is a sneak peek into what the new normal will be a decade from now,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist with the nonprofit Berkeley Earth.

News of a likely second year of record heat comes a day after Republican Donald Trump, who has called climate change a “hoax” and promised to boost oil drilling and production, was re-elected to the presidency. It also comes days before the next U.N. climate conference, called COP29, is set to begin in Azerbaijan. Talks are expected to focus on how to generate trillions of dollars to help transition to clean energies like wind and solar, and thus avoid continued warming. 

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