It's Gulliver vs the Lilliputians

While Narendra Modi's fiery rhetoric may still sway the masses, it is infinitely possible that a handful of state leaders could be his undoing

The Lok Sabha election begins on Thursday. The campaign rhetoric is plunging but that's natural because Prime Minister Narendra Modi has centralised his campaign, his tenure, his governance, his party, and his leadership of the nation: it's all about himself. That's the way of populists and authoritarians (remember "Indira is India"). No point in complaining now. Unfortunately for Modi, he cannot contest all 543 Lok Sabha seats. Also unfortunately for Modi, like Gulliver in Lilliput, he has to fight a posse of state leaders, be it Mamata Banerjee in Bengal or Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav, the former chief ministers of UP who held a joint rally on Sunday, or Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra, who is suddenly saying that the opposition is in with a chance.

Also unfortunately for Modi, he peaked in 2014. Even if the NDA wins 30 out of Maharashtra's 48 seats, it's still a drop from last time's tally of 42. Even if the BJP emerges the single largest party in UP, it might still be 40 seats down from 2014. No wonder the opposition has stuck to quietly pinning him down in each state without much all-India fanfare. "Didi" has told voters to vote for India's first Bengali PM; K Chandrashekhar Rao, who swept the Telengana assembly election in December, has spoken of forming a new national party; and Naveen Patnaik has released an exercise video in which his energy eerily matches that of Modi's from his yoga video last year.

For Modi, personalising the election has also embittered party colleagues. This week, LK Advani, who is literally the party's Dr Frankenstein from the 1980s and 1990s, and who saved Modi from being sacked after the 2002 post-Godhra riots, lashed out after being denied a ticket for contesting the election from Gandhinagar (Modi's consigliere, Amit Shah, will contest instead). Though at 91 Advani is too old to contest, and though his words mean nothing to voters from either side, his pointed blog that one should put nation and party before oneself, would have been discussed in party circles.

Similarly, MM Joshi went public on how he was overlooked for a a ticket this time. And, outgoing Speaker Sumitra Mahajan, a Modi accomplice in destroying the Temple of Democracy that is Parliament (which she was supposed to defend and strengthen), is embittered that she was not asked to recontest from Indore, India's cleanest city. Again, nobody cares much because they'll be following Defence Minister N Sitharaman's advice to vote for Modi and not the local candidate. But it will matter within the party. Modi-Shah will have to find a replacement in Indore, and the candidate will not enthuse everyone there, some of whom might have been waiting their turn. Sitting parliamentarians who are not renominated have the capacity for decisive mischief. Plus, such ruthless disposal of the party faithful alarms others. Their turn will come, if not today then tomorrow. Then again, BJP members call their individual cowardice party discipline.

The NDA allies will take serious note of the BJP seniors being dumped. The Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena have been treated worse than dirt during the past five years, which is a natural consequence of the centralisation of power in an individual. They blame Modi-Shah. The Akali Dal in 2017 openly complained that the late AB Vajpayee treated his allies better than Modi when it came to Governorships and other sops. (Prakash Singh Badal is a old and tight friend of Advani's.) The Shiv Sena has regularly complained loudly although it quickly fell in line for revalidating the alliance for this election. The AIADMK doesn't even mention the BJP by name in its current poll campaign. The DMK has successfully turned the Lok Sabha election into a referendum on Modi – who is not as popular in the deep South as he is in other parts of India. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar has already proven his flexibility in leaving and joining alliances; if, after the election, it is profitable for him to desert the NDA at the Centre, no one will be surprised when he does.

Unfortunately for Modi, India is not like America or China or Russia or even Turkey. Despite his personal popularity – reportage on the ground in various states shows that despite agrarian distress and unemployment, there are substantial segments of voters who are happy that Modi "taught a lesson" to Pakistan with the post-Pulwama airstrike – India is more diverse than Europe for any one campaign to fit all. Modi's election speeches have degenerated to 'ad hominem' attacks on his opponents, which is likely a barometer of whether he thinks he will win 270 seats or just 170 seats. It is the difference between being alone and being lonely; and whether it is Gulliver or the Lilliputians, who prevails.

Aditya Sinha's latest book, India Unmade: How the Modi Government Broke the Economy, with Yashwant Sinha, is out now. He tweets @autumnshade Send your feedback to
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